Preview · 7:00 p.m. ET · Scotiabank Arena
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Saturday, November 14, 2026
Who will win Oilers vs Maple Leafs?
arakiceML gives the Edmonton Oilers a 59% chance to win this game, overtime and shootout included, against 41% for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Chance the Edmonton Oilers win by two goals or more (−1.5 puck line): 38%.
Recorded at 1:50 p.m. ET, before puck drop, and published in ArakIce's public prediction record. See the timestamped file. Starting goalies were not confirmed yet at that time, so the model assumed each team's usual starter.
This is a probability, not a lock: a 60% favourite is expected to lose four games out of ten.
What is true about this game today
Edmonton Oilers come in on 3 days of rest. Toronto Maple Leafs come in on 2 days of rest. Toronto Maple Leafs are 6 games into a homestand. Edmonton Oilers are 7-0-1 on the road, Toronto Maple Leafs 4-8-1 at home.
The recent history between these two
Their last 10 meetings, going back to 2021. Toronto Maple Leafs lead 7 to 3, at 7.50 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | Maple Leafs 5, Oilers 2 | EDM | 7 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Oilers 6, Maple Leafs 3 | TOR | 9 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Maple Leafs 4, Oilers 3 | EDM | 7 |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Maple Leafs 4, Oilers 3 (OT) | TOR | 7 |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Maple Leafs 6, Oilers 3 | TOR | 9 |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Oilers 4, Maple Leafs 2 | EDM | 6 |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Maple Leafs 7, Oilers 4 | TOR | 11 |
| Mar 1, 2023 | Oilers 5, Maple Leafs 2 | EDM | 7 |
Edges and player props for this game
The win probability is free on this page. In the app, ArakIce compares it to the sportsbook line, flags where the value is, and projects props for every player in this game.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
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