Preview · 7:00 p.m. ET · Benchmark International Arena
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning — Saturday, November 14, 2026
Who will win Red Wings vs Lightning?
arakiceML gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 69% chance to win this game, overtime and shootout included, against 31% for the Detroit Red Wings. Chance the Tampa Bay Lightning win by two goals or more (−1.5 puck line): 48%.
Recorded at 1:50 p.m. ET, before puck drop, and published in ArakIce's public prediction record. See the timestamped file. Starting goalies were not confirmed yet at that time, so the model assumed each team's usual starter.
This is a probability, not a lock: a 60% favourite is expected to lose four games out of ten.
What is true about this game today
Detroit Red Wings come in on 2 days of rest. Detroit Red Wings are 4 games into a road trip. Tampa Bay Lightning come in on 2 days of rest. Detroit Red Wings are 3-5-2 on the road, Tampa Bay Lightning 8-0-0 at home.
The recent history between these two
Their last 19 meetings, going back to 2021. Tampa Bay Lightning lead 10 to 9, at 6.26 goals a game.
| Date | Result | Host | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Lightning 4, Red Wings 3 (OT) | TBL | 7 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Lightning 4, Red Wings 1 | TBL | 5 |
| Nov 28, 2025 | Lightning 6, Red Wings 3 | DET | 9 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Red Wings 2, Lightning 1 (OT) | DET | 3 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Red Wings 4, Lightning 3 (OT) | TBL | 7 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Lightning 6, Red Wings 3 | DET | 9 |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Red Wings 2, Lightning 0 | DET | 2 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Lightning 5, Red Wings 1 | TBL | 6 |
Edges and player props for this game
The win probability is free on this page. In the app, ArakIce compares it to the sportsbook line, flags where the value is, and projects props for every player in this game.
Open ArakIceWhat the model weighs here
The projection starts from expected goals, meaning the quality of chances each club creates and gives up, which holds up better than goals scored. It then adjusts for what is only true of this game: who is confirmed in net, rest and travel, whether either club is on the second night of a back to back, and the referee crew where it moves the total.
Schedule, standings and results from the NHL public API. Head to head history from ArakIce's own game database.
ArakIce provides statistical analysis and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a guarantee of results. Betting involves risk and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction. If gambling stops being fun, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. In Ontario, call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600.