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Auston Matthews Prop Predictions
Auston Matthews has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 12 of 19 games (63%) this season, recorded a point in 14 of 19 games (74%) and scored in 10 of 19 games (53%). Over his last 10 games he is averaging 3.1 shots, in line with his season rate.
Auston Matthews's season at a glance
How often Auston Matthews clears common prop lines
| Prop | Line | Over | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 15 of 19 | 79% |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 12 of 19 | 63% |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 8 of 19 | 42% |
| Points | 0.5 | 14 of 19 | 74% |
| Points | 1.5 | 7 of 19 | 37% |
| Goals | 0.5 | 10 of 19 | 53% |
All 19 games this regular season. A hit rate is history, not a projection: it ignores the opponent, rest and goaltending, which is what the model adds.
Splits
| Shots per game, season | 3.1 |
| Shots per game, last 10 | 3.1 |
| Shots per game at home | 3.2 |
| Shots per game on the road | 2.9 |
| Ice time per game | 20:38 |
Last 5 games
| Date | Opponent | G | A | P | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:30 |
| Nov 7 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22:57 |
| Nov 3 | vs UTA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20:01 |
| Oct 31 | @ VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20:13 |
| Oct 28 | @ SEA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20:08 |
How arakiceML projects Auston Matthews's props
arakiceML starts from Auston Matthews's ice time and shot rate, then adjusts for the specific game: the opponent's shot suppression, pace, rest and back-to-backs, and the goaltender on the other side. Shots are the more stable prop; points swing more with linemates and finishing luck, so their projection carries more uncertainty.
Auston Matthews's projection tonight
When Auston Matthews plays, ArakIce shows the model's projection for his shots and points and the gap against the posted line, updated through the day.
Open ArakIceSeason and game-log data from the NHL public API, as of Nov 9, 2026.
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