Toronto Maple Leafs ยท center
John Tavares Prop Predictions
John Tavares has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 5 of 9 games (56%) this season, recorded a point in 5 of 9 games (56%) and scored in 2 of 9 games (22%). Over his last 9 games he is averaging 2.3 shots, in line with his season rate.
John Tavares's season at a glance
How often John Tavares clears common prop lines
| Prop | Line | Over | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 5 of 9 | 56% |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 5 of 9 | 56% |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 3 of 9 | 33% |
| Points | 0.5 | 5 of 9 | 56% |
| Points | 1.5 | 2 of 9 | 22% |
| Goals | 0.5 | 2 of 9 | 22% |
All 9 games this regular season. A hit rate is history, not a projection: it ignores the opponent, rest and goaltending, which is what the model adds.
Splits
| Shots per game, season | 2.3 |
| Shots per game, last 9 | 2.3 |
| Shots per game at home | 2.6 |
| Shots per game on the road | 1.5 |
| Ice time per game | 17:09 |
Last 5 games
| Date | Opponent | G | A | P | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 |
| Nov 7 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21:09 |
| Oct 15 | vs BUF | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:47 |
| Oct 13 | @ UTA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 18:03 |
| Oct 8 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 |
How arakiceML projects John Tavares's props
arakiceML starts from John Tavares's ice time and shot rate, then adjusts for the specific game: the opponent's shot suppression, pace, rest and back-to-backs, and the goaltender on the other side. Shots are the more stable prop; points swing more with linemates and finishing luck, so their projection carries more uncertainty.
John Tavares's projection tonight
When John Tavares plays, ArakIce shows the model's projection for his shots and points and the gap against the posted line, updated through the day.
Open ArakIceSeason and game-log data from the NHL public API, as of Nov 9, 2026.
ArakIce provides statistical analysis and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a guarantee of results. Betting involves risk and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. Must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction. If gambling stops being fun, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. In Ontario, call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600.