Florida Panthers ยท left wing
Matthew Tkachuk Prop Predictions
Matthew Tkachuk has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of 18 games (39%) this season, recorded a point in 15 of 18 games (83%) and scored in 4 of 18 games (22%). Over his last 10 games he is averaging 2.6 shots, up from 2.3 on the season.
Matthew Tkachuk's season at a glance
How often Matthew Tkachuk clears common prop lines
| Prop | Line | Over | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 12 of 18 | 67% |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 7 of 18 | 39% |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 3 of 18 | 17% |
| Points | 0.5 | 15 of 18 | 83% |
| Points | 1.5 | 4 of 18 | 22% |
| Goals | 0.5 | 4 of 18 | 22% |
All 18 games this regular season. A hit rate is history, not a projection: it ignores the opponent, rest and goaltending, which is what the model adds.
Splits
| Shots per game, season | 2.3 |
| Shots per game, last 10 | 2.6 |
| Shots per game at home | 2.5 |
| Shots per game on the road | 2.2 |
| Ice time per game | 18:57 |
Last 5 games
| Date | Opponent | G | A | P | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17:39 |
| Nov 7 | @ WSH | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23:55 |
| Nov 4 | vs CHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15:12 |
| Nov 2 | vs DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20:31 |
| Oct 30 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:53 |
How arakiceML projects Matthew Tkachuk's props
arakiceML starts from Matthew Tkachuk's ice time and shot rate, then adjusts for the specific game: the opponent's shot suppression, pace, rest and back-to-backs, and the goaltender on the other side. Shots are the more stable prop; points swing more with linemates and finishing luck, so their projection carries more uncertainty.
Matthew Tkachuk's projection tonight
When Matthew Tkachuk plays, ArakIce shows the model's projection for his shots and points and the gap against the posted line, updated through the day.
Open ArakIceSeason and game-log data from the NHL public API, as of Nov 9, 2026.
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